Print
Jan 17, 2008 2:10 am US/Eastern
Republicans Ponder Deadlocked Convention
WASHINGTON (AP) ―
The Republican presidential race is so unsettled that some party
officials are openly talking of a scenario that seemed almost
unthinkable until now: the first contested GOP convention in 60 years.
Even if Republicans choose a nominee before they convene in
Minneapolis-St. Paul on Sept. 1, there's a good possibility he will
emerge weeks or even months after the Democratic nominee is chosen,
giving Democrats an advantage in fundraising, organizing and
campaigning. Congressional Republicans particularly wanted an early
nominee to draw voters' attention from President Bush, whose low
approval ratings could hurt the entire party in the fall.
Bush's former top political aide, Karl Rove, told Republican
officials Wednesday that major challenges await "the moment our
candidate secures the nomination." As if they needed reminding, Rove
told those at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, "the
primaries are far from over."
Democrats also face the possibility of a long and costly battle
involving Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of
Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards. But officials attending the RNC
meeting said Democrats seem likely to make their choice before a clear
winner emerges from the pack of four or five still-credible GOP
contenders.
"The way it looks now, it could end up in the convention," Ron
Schmidt, South Dakota's Republican National Committeeman, said of the
party's nominating process. "It's fascinating if you're a political
junkie."
In the major contests so far_ Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan —
three different Republicans have finished first. If former Tennessee
Sen. Fred Thompson scores the win he hopes for in South Carolina on
Saturday, he would be the fourth first-place finisher. Likewise, former
New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani could be the fifth winner in the five
contests if he proves wise in picking Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his
first big stand.
Politicians had long assumed the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" primary,
involving California, New York and 22 other states, would resolve any
doubts about either party's nominee. Democrats feel slightly less
certain about that now, and Republicans are even more doubtful.
The GOP process could go "right up to the point that we don't have a
clear candidate with enough electoral votes to win" the nomination when
the conventions start, said Herbert Schoenbohm, Republican Party
chairman for the Virgin Islands. That would be fine with Schoenbohm,
who said he is "tired of the coronations and staged events" of recent
conventions.
But a deadlocked convention could be a nightmare for the party. The
Republicans' last multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when New York
Gov. Thomas Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. He lost the general
election to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
The last contested Democratic convention was in 1952, when Illinois
Gov. Adlai Stevenson won on the third ballot. He later lost two
elections to Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Contested conventions have never been kind to their eventual
nominees, said G. Terry Madonna, who has studied them as a public
affairs professor and pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in
Pennsylvania. A deadlocked convention in either party remains unlikely,
he said in an interview Wednesday, but it is more possible for
Republicans.
Both parties' nominating rules have changed so dramatically since
the 1950s, Madonna said, that guidelines for resolving such an impasse
are far from clear. "This is something we've never had," he said.
Most convention delegates now are loyal to a given candidate, not to
the party itself, he said. The Byzantine rules governing delegates'
powers and obligations are nearly incomprehensible, he said. But in the
end, it might not matter much.
A deadlocked nominating process would be obvious when most primaries
end by early May, Madonna said, four months before the party
conventions take place. Then "there will be wheeling and dealing" among
the candidates and their surrogates, he said, with possible deals
including a vice presidential spot for a contender willing to step
aside and resolve the question.
On Wednesday, several Republican officials said a protracted primary
season might add excitement to a party that typically settles on a
nominee early.
That's not the tune they were humming last summer, however, when
they began worrying about potential losses at the congressional and
state levels. When a likely GOP nominee emerges by early February or
so, Republicans will "not have the Bush monkey on our back," Rep. Tom
Feeney, R-Fla., said at the time.
Rove told party officials Wednesday that the eventual GOP
presidential nominee has "four big things to do" when the intraparty
battle ends. The first, he said, is to "introduce themself to the
American people," who pay far less attention to campaigns than most
political aficionados realize.
It was a splash of cold-water reality for party activists who don't
know who their standard-bearer will be, nor when he will be chosen.
(© 2009 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)
