Nov 18, 2008 9:00 pm US/Eastern
AAA Predicts Decline In Holiday Travel
NEW YORK (CBS) ―
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Passengers wait in line to check-in for their flights at O'Hare Airport on Nov. 20, 2007, in Chicago.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Travel over the Thanksgiving holiday will drop for the first time in six years due to the economic slowdown and fewer airline flights, the auto club AAA forecast on Tuesday.
The travel club says 41 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home. That's down from 41.6 million last year.
AAA President Robert L. Darbelnet said the economy makes Thanksgiving travel a challenge for some Americans, but they'll get help from the recent decline in gasoline prices, which have tumbled from their summertime highs.
A gallon of self-serve regular gasoline has fallen 88 cents in the past month, to $2.07 a gallon. A year ago, it cost $3.10 a gallon.
Car rental prices are 4 percent higher than a year ago, but midrange hotel rooms are 10 percent cheaper, according to AAA.
AAA, which said it surveyed 8,500 people, forecast that four-fifths of holiday travelers, or 33.2 million, will go by car. That would be a 1.2 percent decline from last Thanksgiving.
The auto club expects 350,000 fewer Americans to travel by air, a 7.2 percent drop, to about 4.5 million. They will also pay more — average fares are 8 percent higher than a year ago, AAA said.
Airline industry officials said, however, that flights will still be packed because there will be fewer of them. The goal is to get consumers to fill those empty seats.
"You never knew when they were going to come down so you just booked knowing, and we'll deal with it then," traveler Scott Neal told CBS station KTVT-TV in Dallas. "I am glad they are coming down."
The Air Transport Association forecast last week that 24 million passengers would fly on U.S. airlines over the 12-day period around Thanksgiving, down 2 million from 2007 and the first decline since 2001.
"That will still translate to full planes because capacity has been reduced about 10 percent," David Castelveter, a spokesman for the airline trade group, said Tuesday.
This summer, when jet fuel prices were at record highs and the economy was showing signs of slowing, U.S. airlines announced flight reductions that took effect in the fall. So even with fewer passengers, Thanksgiving-period flights should average about 80 percent full, and 90 percent full on the three busiest days, according to the transport group.
Anticipating a holiday travel crunch, President George W. Bush announced Tuesday that the Pentagon would open unused military airspace for commercial airliners during the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel periods.
Last year, two military flight corridors were opened to commercial jets along the East Coast. This year, additional lanes will be added in the Midwest, Southwest and the West Coast, Bush said.
Airline industry officials said the moves helped last year, but not as much as good weather.
"Every little bit helps," said Tim Wagner, a spokesman for American Airlines.
(© 2009 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)
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