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TRENTON (CBS) ― Yes, it could happen here. That's the message from many weather experts when it comes to hurricanes in New Jersey.

As the areas ravaged by Hurricane Katrina last year prepare for yet another hurricane season to begin June 1, experts warn that just because New Jersey hasn't seen a major storm in years, residents still need to be prepared especially in light of the fact that more and more people are living near coastal areas.

"I'm really convinced that it's a matter of 'when' not just 'if' the Northeast will be hit by a hurricane," said Assemblyman
Steve Corodemus, R-Monmouth, whose legislative district encompasses part of coastal Monmouth County.

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration this year is predicting what it describes as a 'very active' hurricane season in the North Atlantic, meaning eight to 10 hurricanes including four to six that are Category 3 or higher. Last year, there were 15 hurricanes, seven of which were above Category 3 -- considered "major" -- and four of those actually hit the U.S.

Usually, hurricanes, which need warm water to keep moving, lose steam around Cape Hatteras, N.C. because the water cools, said Mike Wyllie, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Upton, N.Y. office. Also, if they get this far north, winds tend to push them west, which is good news for New Jersey although not so good for Long Island, said Wyllie.

That's not to say the Garden State is immune. An unnamed storm -- the only confirmed hurricane to make landfall in New Jersey -- hit Cape May in 1821 and continued up what is now the Garden State Parkway, said state climatologist David Robinson of Rutgers University. The storm -- most likely a Category 3 hurricane -- proves that while hurricanes in New Jersey are rare, they can happen, said Robinson. And, he added, "We don't need a landfalling storm in New Jersey to wreak havoc."

The big difference between 1821 and now? The population along the coast has exploded, meaning if a storm hits it could cause that much more damage. A mapping scenario by the National Hurricane Center gives an idea of what would happen if, for example, a Category 3 hurricane, moving northwest at 40 mph hit Atlantic City at high tide, said Wyllie. Sixteen to 17 feet of water could surge over the boardwalk and in some of the back bays the waters could be even higher.

Over the years, officials along the coast have implemented a number of different building requirements and structural changes to deal with hurricanes and storms, said Undersheriff Wayne Rupert of the Ocean County Office of Emergency Management.

Many municipalities have installed valves to keep water from surging up through their drainage systems during a storm. In many areas, houses have to be built above the flood plane, and they're built in a such a way to withstand high winds.

But if a storm does head this way, the big challenge may be getting people out of harm's way. For example, Long Beach Island -- which is only six feet above sea level -- only has one bridge off the island. Rupert said officials rely on the National Hurricane Center to tell them where storms are moving, and then a decision is made about whether to begin evacuations.

While he says their predictions have been very accurate in the past, varying weather conditions can send a hurricane that was moving out to see veering directly toward the shore. "You can have a plan for the hurricane, but the hurricane may not follow that plan," Rupert said.

Experts advise people living along the coast to be prepared during hurricane season, pay attention to the news so they won't be taken by surprise when a storm comes and make plans ahead of time for where they'll go and how they'll get there.

Assemblyman Steve Kean, R-Monmouth, is co-sponsoring a bill to create a task force consisting of members from Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth and Ocean counties to look at issues associated with evacuating people during a hurricane.

"Quite frankly, the Katrina disaster is wht triggered it," said Kean. "You get really comfortable about it and forget what could happen. The things that happened in Louisiana prompted us to think what could happen here at home."

(© 2009 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)

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