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by John Bolaris
NEW YORK (CBS) ― Up until now, the winter has been virtually storm-free. It's time for payback. The first major Nor'easter of the year is upon us, and before it leaves it is going to throw just about everything at us -- snow, ice, rain, flooding, damaging winds and bitter temperatures. What you will see depends on where you live, but rest-assured virtually everybody's commute will be impacted on Wednesday.

One important note: For a large portion of the area, we will be seeing a significant amount of ice. We're not accustomed to ice storms in this area, but they're the most damaging and most dangerous type of winter storm. When you wake up in the morning, it might look like rain is falling. But temperatures could be in the upper 20s in some places, and that rain could be freezing on anything it comes in contact with. Be especially careful of black ice during the morning commute.

So let's get right to it - here's the forecast...

NYC, Northeastern New Jersey, the North Shore of Long Island, and Coastal Connecticut

Snow will become steady and heavier after midnight. Accumulations by daybreak will generally be 2 to 4 inches. By daybreak, temperatures will be rising to around 30 degrees, and the precipitation will turn over to a dangerous mix of sleet and freezing rain.

Toward midday, temperatures will climb above freezing for a few hours, and the precipitation should change over to a heavy, windswept rain. This will wipe out most of the accumulations from the morning. But then in the afternoon, cold air will come charging back in, and there is a possibility for some heavy snow with brief blizzard-like conditions.

The snow will taper off at night, but not before an additional 2 to 4 inches could fall. At night, temperatures will drop into the teens, and roads are very likely to freeze over.

South Shore of Long Island and the Jersey Shore

Snow will become steady overnight. Generally we'll see 1 to 2 inches of snow before going over to some ice during the pre-dawn hours. Sometime during the morning rush, temperatures will rise above freezing and the precipitation will turn over to a heavy windswept rain, melting away any snow from overnight. By midday, the winds will begin to howl, gusting as high as 60 mph. This will cause dangerous surf, some localized coastal and street flooding and significant beach erosion.

Late in the afternoon, cold air will come charging back in, and there is a possibility for the precipitation to change back to snow before ending. The snow will taper off at night, with perhaps an inch before all is said and done. At night, temperatures will drop through the 20s and into the teens, and roads are very likely to freeze over.

Northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and Interior Connecticut

Snow will become steady and heavier overnight. Accumulations by daybreak will generally be 4 to 6 inches (perhaps more in the Catskills.) It's going to a be a brutal Valentine's Day with temperatures stuck in the 20s, and blizzard-like conditions at times. Toward midday, it is possible some sleet and freezing rain will mix in. The more sleet and freezing rain we see, the lower the snow accumulations will be.

But by afternoon, any mixed precipitation will change back to snow, and another 4 to 6 inches of snow are possible (again, more in the Catskills.) By the time all is said and done, expect snow totals to be in the 6-to-12-inch range. However, if you live north and west of places like Sparta, Middletown, Newburgh, and Danbury, don't be surprised to see more than a foot.

The snow will wind down Wednesday night. But strong winds will keep blowing and drifting the snow well into Thursday. Also, temperatures will be tumbling into the teens and single digits by Thursday morning with dangerously cold wind chills.

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